Buzzing between theory of change and backcasting

Activity concept

Theory of change and backcasting are two common approaches to strategic planning, programme development and innovation. Their key feature is the focus on clear description of causal relations between interventions and their outcomes as well as articulation of the original state and the final outcomes to which one aspires. An interesting difference between them is the direction of thinking, either from the current situation towards the future aims, or from the vision of the future back to the issues we observe in today's world. When the situation that you find yourself in seems overwhelming and you don’t know where to start backcasting might be a good strategy, as you start with what you want, desire, hope for, value or care for. On the other hand, if your problem is clearly defined, you might want to start from the current situation, budling the path to change step-by-step. 

In this activity we play around with these approaches, in that we propose another, even simpler place to start with, one that can make the project or idea under development more meaningful and realistic. Instead of starting with a vision of the future or a definition of a problem, you can also start with things that you already do and work out the rest from there. This is a way of leveraging our already existing interests, actions and practices. From this point, you move outwards to determine what you can do, who can help, what impacts can result, what objectives can be achieved, etc., eventually arriving at a tangible roadmap for actions to reach a desired outcome. Of course, the canvas we provide here as the template for the activity can work just as well for a backcasting or theory of change process – indeed, we invite you to play around with this concept, finding different entry points to imagining concrete pathways to change.

Stage: Co-designing

Format: In person, Online

Work Modality: Individual, Small groups

Location: Indoor

Duration: 90mins

Topic(s): Pollinators

Tools

Post-its, Pens, crayons etc..., Tables and chairs, Poster template

Team

Facilitator / moderator

As this activity will include developing ideas for concrete actions and interventions, it can benefit from the involvement of stakeholders or representatives from public institutions and civil society organisations as they can provide a good understanding of the ideas can fit in real-life context. However, their contributions should be well defined, not to limit the creativity and knowledge of citizens. 

Process

This activity can be done individually or in small groups, but as in most such activities, group work usually enables more diverse input, joint reflection and so better results. 

The first stage is to identify the starting point on the canvas from which you want to begin. This will depend on many things. If you previously engaged in storytelling and developed a substantial vision for the future, you might start at 'vision' and so follow a more traditional backcasting approach. If you worked on the Iceberg Model or the Problems Tree, you might want to start with problems you identified, and work out a theory of change. 

Instead, if you want to anchor the ideas developed in the existing interests of the participants (e.g., when you are working with a very heterogeneous group with little or no interest in pollinators) then you might want to start with 'actions', identifying what the participants already do, their hobbies or interests (see >Blueprint 1 to get a better idea of how this can work on the example of filmmaking). This choice is based on three rationales. First, people can be more motivated to work on projects if these relate to their existing passions - even if they do not have intrinsic interest in pollinators. Second, linking to passions, practices and interests makes it easier to ground the project in the daily life of participants, which increases the chances of success. Finally, to work with what participants already do creates an opportunity for them to bring in their knowledge. 

After this first step, you work out the remaining parts of the canvas. You can move outwards from the element you defined first (like actions) or you can ‘butterfly’ around the canvas, jumping between the different sections based on which ones seem easier to fil in at first, letting these trigger new ideas as you go. Wherever you start, always be open to iterative back-and-forth between the stages.  

The final worked out posters are then shared in plenary, where participants are invited to provide their feedback. 

Compatibility

• To start from a problem and the current situation, this activity can follow up on >Mapping the system or the >Problems tree.
• Some of the ideas for actions might need to be developed further and this can be done through, e.g.,>prototyping.
• At the end, participants should >share and reflect on the results.